Trump 2020 election victory will collapse the global liberal order
Karen DeYong, 6-8, 18, Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-trump-some-fear-the-end-of-the-world-order/2018/06/08/d6026dde-6b44-11e8-bf8c-f9ed2e672adf_story.html?utm_term=.c91adc679862 In Trump, some fear the end of the world order
When does a feud become a separation? A separation a divorce? When do arguments, sharp-tongued put-downs and perceived betrayal among allies become the collapse of the Western-dominated order that has ruled the world, under U.S. leadership, for the past seven decades? As each day brings a new series of punches and counterpunches between President Trump and longtime U.S. partners, the question appears to be moving beyond the realm of the academic. The most recent episode began with Friday’s Group of Seven summit in Quebec, the annual chat-fest with the United States and the world’s other self-described economic leaders, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. It followed Trump’s decision not to exempt any of them from new U.S. “national security” tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. That ruling came on the heels of nearly 18 months of clashes over climate change, trade, NATO, Iran and other issues on a list so long it is hard to remember everything on it. “What worries me most . . . is the fact that the rules-based international order is being challenged,” European Council President Donald Tusk said as the G-7 summit got underway. What is surprising, Tusk said, is that the challenge is driven not by the “usual suspects, but by its main architect and guarantor, the U.S.” Trump’s actions, he said, “play into the hands of those who seek a new post-West order where liberal democracy and fundamental freedoms would cease to exist.” Tusk’s usual suspects certainly include China and Russia, the latter suspended from the group after its 2014 annexation of Crimea. As Trump left Washington early Friday, he said Russia should be invited “back in” to the club. President Trump sits with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, center, and British Prime Minister Theresa May, left, during a work session at the Group of Seven summit in Charlevoix, Quebec, on Friday. (Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images) Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and French President Emmanuel Macron held a news conference in Quebec on Thursday to hail their own close relations and said they would continue, politely, to try to convince Trump that his actions are “unacceptable” and counterproductive, even for American workers. Trump responded with a series of tweets Friday morning, saying he was headed to Quebec to “straighten out” U.S. allies. “If it doesn’t happen,” he declared, “we come out even better.” In any case, Trump told reporters as he left the White House for Canada, eventually “we’ll all be in love again.” Maybe. “We don’t know” if the confrontations will have any lasting effect, said Stephen J. Hadley, who served as President George W. Bush’s national security adviser. “That’s the right question.” “First, does the accumulation of these incidents over time begin to erode trust and confidence?” Hadley said. “Secondly, what is it doing to public opinion and public views of the United States. That’s the thing the Trump people don’t sufficiently take into account.” Hadley, whose government service in national security began in the Ford administration, recalled previous U.S.-European crises, from the deployment of intermediate-range nuclear-armed missiles by President Ronald Reagan that brought thousands of protesters into the streets of European capitals to strong opposition to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. “There have been crises before,” he said. [France’s Macron threatens rare rebuke of U.S. at G-7; Trump fires back] Trump’s attitude is often as irritating to allied leaders as are his policies, according to numerous European officials, who consistently address such issues only on the condition of anonymity to avoid making the situation worse. Two administration officials acknowledged that Trump simply does not see allies and adversaries in the traditional way, nor any reason to couch his views in diplomatic niceties. He often describes countries that have been historically aligned with the United States, including Germany, France and Canada, as “so-called allies” who take advantage of the nation. Trump cares very little about the traditional world order, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity about what the president has said in private. For some, there is still time for a resolution phase in a first Trump term. But “where I’m wringing my hands is the 2020 presidential election,” said Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, which advises investors about the impact of politics on risks and opportunities in foreign markets. “If President Trump is reelected, and it will be very close, then during his second term, we have to worry about the end of the liberal world order,” Kupchan said. “A second term would allow him enough time to do irreparable damage to liberal institutions, to the WTO [World Trade Organization] and Bretton Woods,” the 1944 conference where the current international financial system was created, which was quickly followed by the establishment of the United Nations. “With the petrification of a new normal involving tariffs and protectionism,” he said, “that’s the definition of the end of the world order.” In the realm of international relations, Hadley and others said, Trump often creates crises as a way of gaining leverage over others
International liberalism is needed to avoid climate change and global warfare with weapons of mass destruction
Duedney & Ikenberry, July/August 2018, Foreign Affairs, Daniel Deudney is Associate Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University FoG. John Ikenberry is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. Foreign Affairs, Liberal World, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-06-14/liberal-world
This dynamic of constant change and ever-increasing interdependence is only accelerating. Human progress has caused grave harm to the planet and its atmosphere, yet climate change will also require unprecedented levels of international cooperation. With the rise of bioweapons and cyberwarfare, the capabilities to wreak mass destruction are getting cheaper and ever more accessible, making the international regulation of these technologies a vital national security imperative for all countries. At the same time, global capitalism has drawn more people and countries into cross-border webs of exchange, thus making virtually everyone dependent on the competent management of international finance and trade. In the age of global interdependence, even a realist must be an internationalist.